With the release of the newest version of the Apple Pencil, I have begun to see a number of pundits and journalists talk about how confusing the iPad line has become. It is tempting to respond to this with a condescending claim about their own condescension towards "average" consumers — even if it would be wrong to do so.
Those poor, benighted non-techies really can't handle anything beyond the good/better/best progression ninety percent of the time so Apple needs to get rid of those extra models in the lineup, they might say.
Well, I might respond with equal condescension, you just don't get the iPad because your frame of reference is bound to the fourfold division of the Mac promulgated by Steve Jobs when he returned from NEXT, with desktop/ laptop on one axis and consumer/pro on the other — a model that doesn't fit the iPad. (Even though the model kind of does fit...)
Other than providing the smug satisfaction that comes along with any good strawman logical fallacy, this does no one any good. The pundits and reviewers claiming confusion and citing the clarity that adding a larger iPad Air would bring are expressing a real problem that they face every time a friend or family member asks what device they should buy.
It's one thing to offer the wrong advice to a reader or viewer you will never meet. It's another to get to hear the griping every holiday dinner and suffer through the implication that you are bad at your job.
It is equally true that the new Apple Pencil appears to be hinting that there is some kind of change coming. Whether it is a hardware redesign (Does USB-C signal a move away from magnetic charging to make space for a repositioned FaceTime camera?) or a shift in design philosophy (We need a good/better/best progression for the Apple Pencil.) remains to be seen.
That said, the decision tree as to which iPad to buy is simple.
Is price the most important thing for you? If yes, get the basic iPad. If not, go to question two.
Are you a videographer or professional (or similarly serious) photographer? If yes, get the Pro. If not, go to question 3.
Are you looking for maximum portability? Get the Mini.
If not, get the Air.
Yes, at each of these steps, there are other questions but those answers come easily. How much memory should I get? How much are you using? What about the screen size? Those who need a big screen or just love the Mini know who they are already.
Those are questions that can be walked through simply enough and most consumers can figure those out.
That said, I want to go back to that two-by-two grid for a second, because it is hiding in the iPad lineup. If you look at those four questions, and don't get distracted by form factor, you can set up the grid -- based on most likely place of use -- with laptop replacement/desktop replacement on one axis and consumer/ professional on the other. The consumer laptop is the Mini. The consumer desktop is the Air ( living in its Magic Keyboard case). The pro laptop is the 11 inch Pro and its desktop counterpart is the 12.9 inch.
The more peripherals you add (e.g., keyboards, track pads, and external monitors), the clearer the alignment becomes.
If Apple were to add a larger iPad Air to the lineup, the grid gets simpler and the Mini becomes more of a specialty item, much as the base iPad is targeted at the education market. Like the Pro, you will know if you need it — either because it speaks to you or because you want a un companion for your Mac.
I am not going to argue iPads and Macs have become interchangeable. They aren't and each comes with strengths and limitations. What I will argue is that there is more consistency and less confusion than may meet the eye for the average consumer than we techies might initially think.